MESOSCALE NUMERICAL MODELS: COST-EFFECTIVE INPUT TO DISPERSION PREDICTION SCHEMES

Abstract

Dispersion schemes which utilise on-line transport weather data are in increasing use, to predict the concentration distribution of pollutants near an industrial source. In many cases, sharp transitions in plume transport and spread can occur downstream from the source owing to changes in wind directions and mixing properties. These may be observed using costly remote stations or estimated using a mesoscale numerical model. A two dimensional mixed layer numerical model is described and tested for a land-seabreeze scenario in the Cape Town area. Comparisons with previous observational are made. It is suggested that these numerical models be used to interpolate meteorological observations form the source, to the wider area influenced by industrial emissions.